He was a typical little Jihadist immigrant.
I’m a Sydney boy, very saddened 🙁 I’m also a Masters graduate with a
specialisation in terrorist and counter-terrorist studies. Without wishing
to sound like an armchair critic or vainglorious pundit – and I am not
apprised of all the facts, nor was I in any way professionally involved,
nor am I a tactical expert – I do wonder if they should not have moved
sooner, if at all feasible. My comments are in no way an indictment on the
professionalism or bravery of those involved. Some might call my musings
unhelpful – but I have a personal and professional interest in this field
and I try to make a study of these cases to enhance my knowledge. Also,
there will be a critical incident investigation and it will cast much more
light on a presently murky picture. So take my comments in the spirit
intended – a fledgling attempt to analyse proceedings, without wishing to
sound snarky or to question the professionalism of the responders. I am
quite certain that throughout, they did their very, very best and their
bravery cannot be questioned.
I understand the playbook is to exercise patience, negotiate and try to
coax the gunman down. But they had the perp’s profile early into the piece
and knew he was a radical Islamist, with a highly erratic background, so
they probably had a strong sense it would end badly. Waiting for him to nod
off was definitely prudent in the sense that it was the most likely way to
bring about the optimal outcome (peaceful resolution with no major
injuries). If the tactical response guys could have got to him while
asleep, that’s all she wrote. They might even have nabbed him alive. But it
might turn out that trying to wait him out was too sheepish an approach.
Maybe a kill opportunity should have been taken earlier, in light of the
perp’s character. I’m almost certain the Israelis would have acted sooner.
Then again, their playbook is necessarily more aggressive.
The presence of EOD personnel and use of an anti-IED UGV after the raid
obviously bespeak a strong suspicion by authorities that the perp had
rigged the place with explosives, or at least had grenades or molotovs etc.
But again, once they knew this guy’s profile, I believe they should have
assessed him unlikely to have the mental stability, nor proficiency, nor
frankly, coherent game plan – to have rigged anything sophisticated. Alas,
bombs are not incredibly difficult to build – but they do generally require
a certain level of proficiency, training or at least practice. I see little
evidence from the self-appointed Sheik’s background that he was possessed
of the sanity or skill to successfully rig a bomb, let alone a dead man’s
switch or cascading daisy-chain a la Beslan (which would have given snipers
pause). And a clean shot from a sniper would have likely prevented the perp
from getting to grenades etc. (unless he had one in his hand with the pin
pulled). But again, I think they would have known roughly what arms he had
– they’d debriefed hostages, had limited visibility into the cafe etc. If
it turns out he had no explosives, and they should have assessed on balance
he did not, this will beg the question as to why a kill chance wasn’t taken.
Perhaps the snipers couldn’t get an angle, but there were several instances
throughout the siege where the perp could clearly be seen unshielded by
hostages – and if camera lens’ could get that view I don’t see why snipers
wouldn’t have been able to. It’s all just hindsight now – and everybody
tried their best. Indeed, the raid is being widely celebrated as very well
executed around the world. I admit these are nothing more than early
impressions and initial musings. But lessons will have to be drawn and its
not too early to start asking questions, even if they cannot yet be
BTW – I’m not sure I would call this a terrorist incident as such, or
perhaps only in a tangential or vague sense. In my view, the perp was just
totally unspooled. Yes he spewed Islamist invective, but he was just a
lunatic in search of a cause. It is telling that he didn’t seem to have a
clear sense of his agenda throughout the siege – apart from expressing his
grievances or to rant at the PM on the airwaves, what were his political
demands or objectives, specifically? Did he indicate he was prepared to
horse-trade hostages in return for the fulfillment of any of his
objectives? At least on first impression, it appears he lacked any true
political or strategic objective – usually an important element in defining
a “terrorist”. Sure, he wrapped himself in the mantle of Islamism, but
somehow I feel he is more like the crazy divorcee who’s holed up with his
ex-wife and children at gunpoint feeling as though his life-options have
closed in around him and ready to end it all in a bloody and suicidal blaze
of imagined glory.
Most intrigued to hear others’ views from around the world, particularly
those with some tactical expertise.
A German’s View on Islam – worth reading. This is by far the best
explanation of the Muslim terrorist situation I have ever read. His
references to past history are accurate and clear. Not long, easy to
understand, and well worth the read. The author of this email is Dr.
Emanuel Tanya, a well-known and well-respected psychiatrist. A man,
whose family was German aristocracy prior to World War II, owned a number
of large industries and estates. When asked how many German people were
true Nazis, the answer he gave can guide our attitude toward fanaticism.
‘Very few people were true Nazis,’ he said, ‘but many enjoyed the return
of German pride, and many more were too busy to care. I was one of those
who just thought the Nazis were a bunch of fools. So, the majority just sat
back and let it all happen. Then, before we knew it, they owned us, and we
had lost control, and the end of the world had come.’
‘My family lost everything. I ended up in a concentration camp and the
Allies destroyed my factories.’
‘We are told again and again by ‘experts’ and ‘talking heads’ that Islam
is a religion of peace and that the vast majority of Muslims just want to
live in peace. Although this unqualified assertion may be true, it is
entirely irrelevant. It is meaningless fluff meant to make us feel better,
and meant to somehow diminish the specter of fanatics rampaging across the
globe in the name of Islam.’
‘The fact is that the fanatics rule Islam at this moment in history. It
is the fanatics who march. It is the fanatics who wage any one of 50
shooting wars worldwide. It is the fanatics who systematically slaughter
Christian or tribal groups throughout Africa and are gradually taking over
the entire continent in an Islamic wave. It is the fanatics who bomb,
behead, murder, or honor-kill. It is the fanatics who take over mosque
after mosque. It is the fanatics who zealously spread the stoning and
hanging of rape victims and homosexuals. It is the fanatics who teach their
young to kill and to become suicide bombers.’
‘The hard, quantifiable fact is that the peaceful majority, the ‘silent
majority,’ is cowed and extraneous. Communist Russia was comprised of
Russians who just wanted to live in peace, yet the Russian Communists were
responsible for the murder of about 20 million people. The peaceful
majority were irrelevant. China’s huge population was peaceful as well, but
Chinese Communists managed to kill a staggering 70 million people.’
‘The average Japanese individual prior to World War II was not a
warmongering sadist. Yet, Japan murdered and slaughtered its way across
South East Asia in an orgy of killing that included the systematic murder
of 12 million Chinese civilians; most killed by sword, shovel, and bayonet.
And who can forget Rwanda , which collapsed into butchery? Could it not be
said that the majority of Rwandans were ‘peace loving’?
‘History lessons are often incredibly simple and blunt, yet for all our
powers of reason, we often miss the most basic and uncomplicated of points:
peace-loving Muslims have been made irrelevant by their silence.
Peace-loving Muslims will become our enemy if they don’t speak up, because
like my friend from Germany , they will awaken one day and find that the
fanatics own them, and the end of their world will have begun.’
‘Peace-loving Germans, Japanese, Chinese, Russians, Rwandans, Serbs,
Afghans, Iraqis, Palestinians, Somalis, Nigerians, Algerians, and many
others have died because the peaceful majority did not speak up until it
was too late.’
‘Now Islamic prayers have been introduced in Toronto and other public
schools in Ontario , and, yes, in Ottawa , too, while the Lord’s Prayer
was removed (due to being so offensive?). The Islamic way may be peaceful
for the time being in our country until the fanatics move in.’
‘In Australia , and indeed in many countries around the world, many of
the most commonly consumed food items have the halal emblem on them. Just
look at the back of some of the most popular chocolate bars, and at other
food items in your local supermarket. Food on aircraft have the halal
emblem just to appease the privileged minority who are now rapidly
expanding within the nation’s shores.’
‘In the U.K, the Muslim communities refuse to integrate and there are now
dozens of “no-go” zones within major cities across the country that the
police force dare not intrude upon. Sharia law prevails there, because the
Muslim community in those areas refuse to acknowledge British law.’
‘As for us who watch it all unfold, we must pay attention to the only
group that counts – the fanatics who threaten our way of life.’
Lastly, anyone who doubts that the issue is serious and just deletes this
email without sending it on, is contributing to the passiveness that
allows the problems to expand.
Extend yourself a bit and send this on. Let us hope that thousands
world-wide read this, think about it, and send it on before it’s too late,
and we are silenced because we were silent!!!
FreeRadioRevolution Emergency Round Table: Sydney Siege Hoax
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